IPCC Report Working Group I: What Role do Businesses Play?
The Physical Science Basis
The contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report provides an understanding of the current state of the climate, including how it is changing and the state of knowledge about possible climate futures. This article discusses the key findings of the report and the role of businesses in combatting the climate crisis.
The current state of the climate
There is no doubt that human activity has warmed the Earth’s atmosphere, ocean, and land. The scale of recent changes across the climate system, and many aspects of its current state, are like none seen for many thousands of years. Extreme weather and climate extremes are already affecting every region across the globe. According to the Sixth Assessment Report, the attribution of these changes due to human influence has only strengthened since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
What do our possible climate futures look like?
It is reported that under all emissions scenarios considered, global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century. Unless deep reductions in carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades, global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded this century.
It is predicted that as global temperatures rise, many changes in the climate system become more extreme; while heatwaves, droughts, and intense tropical cyclones increase, Arctic Sea ice, snow cover, and permafrost reduce. At the same time, continued global warming is projected to further intensify the global water cycle, as a warmer climate will increase the frequency and duration of very wet and very dry climate events and seasons. The report also finds that under scenarios with increasing CO₂ emissions, ocean and land carbon sinks are projected to be less effective at slowing the accumulation of CO₂ in the atmosphere.
Some changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level. It is reported with very high confidence that mountain and polar glaciers are committed to continuing melting for decades or even centuries to come.
With increased global warming, every region is predicted to increasingly experience concurrent and multiple changes in climactic impact drivers, which are physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Changes in several climatic impact drivers would be more widespread at 2°C compared to 1.5°C global warming and this pattern continues for even higher warming levels.
Some low likelihood outcomes included in the risk assessment are ice sheet collapse, abrupt ocean circulation changes, compound extreme events, and warming significantly larger than predicted potential future warming.
Limiting Future Climate Change
So, what does it take from a physical science perspective to limit human-induced global warming to a specific level? The report implores that we must:
Limit cumulative CO₂ emissions;
Reach at least net zero CO₂ emissions; and
Significantly reduce other greenhouse gas emissions.
The main other greenhouse gas considered is methane; strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in methane emissions would limit the warming effect because of declining aerosol pollution and improved air quality.
In 2020, the reduction of emissions associated with measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 led to temporary but detectable effects on air pollution, showing how quickly GHG emission reductions can have an impact on our environment. If we are to have the best chance of reversing climate change and securing ourselves a sustainable future, we must act now, and act with integrity. And that is exactly what businesses must do.
The Role of Businesses
Businesses have a crucial role to play in greening the economy, being in a prime position to lessen environmental impact directly and direct funding towards the innovative solutions that enable sustainable development. COP26 saw many businesses, over half of FTSE100 companies, step up to this challenge and commit to eliminating their contribution to climate change by 2050. Many are now also recognising the benefits of reducing their climate impact for their companies, including increased opportunities and reduction of risk; as Business and Industry Minister Lee Rowley has said about transitioning to net-zero emissions, it ‘doesn’t just make sense for the planet - it makes business sense too.’ The message: act with integrity to benefit the planet, and in turn, your business will benefit also.
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Sources:
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cop26-sees-uk-businesses-lead-the-world-in-climate-change-commitments